As for NOcsPS not only changed contribution margins but – because of higher yield variations – also higher variances of the contribution margins are to be expected, quadratic risk programming based on the expected value-variance-criterion will be applied to identify optimal (risk efficient) cropping systems (see Hardaker et al., 2004, pp. 193; Mußhoff und Hirschauer, 2016, pp. 451).

The main objective of this work package is to assess how the abandonment of chemical pesticides affects the cropping systems of rationally acting farms.

For this purpose , suitable mathematical programming models will be developed. The model parameters are to be obtained from literature reviews and planning data (particularly KTBL data), the exchange of knowledge with the project partners from crop sciences and agricultural engineering, interviews with farmers of the organization Marktgemeinschaft KraichgauKorn w.V. (KraichgauKorn) and insurance experts of the Vereinigte Hagelversicherung.

The following working hypotheses are to be tested using the farm models:

• Depending on the pesticides to be prohibited in the future, the cultivation of certain crops will decrease
• Crop rotations will be more diverse, as the balancing of risks between the different crops – as an crucial integrating force – will (again as it used to be) gain in importance (see Brinkmann, 1922, cited in Dabbert and Braun, 2012, pp. 276)
• Legumes and other non-cereals will gain in importance

• Conservation tillage including no-till farming techniques will become unprofitable

Work will commence at the beginning of year 3 in order to be able to draw on experiences and first results already gained in the work packages of the project partners from crop sciences and agricultural engineering. Until then, the department will have already participated intensively in the project and will have been in continuous dialogue with the external partners KraichgauKorn and Vereinigte Hagelversicherung (including visits and expert interviews on site) to obtain a first modeling data base right in the beginning of this work package. Economic data will be collected in close cooperation with CP16.

The results expected of the empirically founded farm models will allow for the identification of ecologically and economically sustainable, risk efficient cropping systems for NOcsPS by the end of the project. In this context also the unit costs of different crops (e.g. wheat, corn, soybean) will be calculated. The respective results will be discussed with other project partners and adapted to their feedback.